|
28 September 06
George, as per yesterday's email, the minutely final exhaustion gap
for TMWX to its terminal intraday high of 13401.15 and gapping the
valuation area of 13395-13398, and lower than the previous (secondary
to March 2000) May 2006 high of 13472,78 - occurred between 0936 and
0942 EST this morning 28 September....
...the hourly fractal evolution for the Wilshire: 12 and a
fraction/31/31 hours.....
From yesterday's email....
"However there is still another day of possible blow-off activity. A
classical blow-off could occur tomorrow in a 12 +/31/23 of 30-31
hourly pattern. The 12 and a fraction hour base starts on .... day
334. In this scenario a minutely exhaustion gap would again be
apparent on 28 September in taking the Wilshire TMWX to its final
higher level. Likewise, McDonald's may have yet another good day.
Either September 27 or September 28 would be appropriate as a terminal
high."
27 September 06
George, a sine qua non of saturation macroeconomics and
quantum fractal analysis is that the saturation process and the
exhaustion apex for the composite sum of global equities, well
approximated by the Wilshire's 13.5 - 14.5 trillion
dollars is virtually news independent. Turn off the TV's,
radio's, and interupt communication to the trading floors and to the
investors and... exactly.... exactly ..the same trading fractal
patterns will emerge based only the available investment money and
evolving in mechanistic quantum fractal mathematical relationships.
Follow the 11/27/27 day apical saturation and decay curve of October
1929. What were the daily news events that propelled the market higher
and lower on each of those October and November days? Was this
pattern a daily news driven event, or was it the result of the
cresting and decline of available investment money supply - dependent
ultimately on consumer saturation with products and debt....occurring
as a very natural and necessary causal phenomena of excessively low
interest rates and even easier lending terms? Which caused the 1929
efficient evolutionary valuation fractal pattern?
The simple quantum fractal patterns that have evolved since March 2003
and before - as defined by absolute valuation primary nodal lows and by
secondary nodal lows - are simply too conforming and too exact to be
explained by chance alone or by a very unlikely collective precise
harmonious psychology or by an even more unlikely precise and
fortuitous series of news events. It is, in particular, the easily
recognizable precise characteristics of the second fractal with its
nonlinear break between 2x and 2.5x of its first fractal base x and
its exact nodal low at 2.5x that statistically provides fractal
analysis with the necessary predictability and properties of a
science. And it is the integrative and composite growth and decay of
the rotating investment money pool that is 'self organized' into
precise quantum fractal valuation patterns that defines the evolution
of the composite equity valuations and sits atop the integrated total
value under the curve.
As pointed out before, money can be borrowed to invest in the
commodity and equities market to amplify paper valuations, but this
amplification, in terms of the area under curve, i.e., the 13-14 or so
trillion dollars that represents the Wilshire, is minuscule. And much
to the credit of the Federal Reserve, it has not lowered interest
rates in response to the collapsing commodity prices and the looming
housing valuation implosion. Lowering the Fed Funds rate at this point
would have only facilitated further speculator borrowing for even
further equity propulsion, albeit, to a very slightly higher level of
valuation at the end of this equity blow-off period, causing more
misdirection and pain for the small investor.
After all, there is no need to lower rates, sellers of equities are
investing in the bond market driving long term interest rates lower
and are, de facto, doing the work of the Federal Reserve to lower
fixed rates for the cresting one and a half year wave of ARM's coming due.
On to fractal analysis: Day 334 of the second fractal of 334 with a
base of 117 is now contained within the apical cup of 9 trading days
from Friday September 15 to 27 September. On 27 September the Wilshire
had minutely exhaustion gaps to higher levels and the Nasdaq barely
filled its May 11-12 gap from 2264 to 2271, a technical factor used
earlier in the original estimation of the SPX thrusting through the
1330 range. With the Wilshire's minutely exhaustion gaps and the long
awaited filling of the NASDAQ 11-12 May exhaustion gap, the
requirements for the secondary apex have been fulfilled. MCD's,
America's GM replacement service industry, had a easily seen
exhaustion gap on 27 September 2006 in a 12+/31/24 or classical
x/2.5x/2x three phase fractal growth pattern.
However there is still another day of possible blow-off activity. A
classical blow-off could occur tomorrow in a 12 +/31/23 of 30-31
hourly pattern. The 12 and a fraction hour base starts on .... day
334. In this scenario a minutely exhaustion gap would again be
apparent on 28 September in taking the Wilshire TMWX to its final
higher level. Likewise, McDonald's may have yet another good day.
Either September 27 or September 28 would be appropriate as a terminal
high.
Remembering that the nonlinear break occurs between 2x and 2.5x of the
second fractal, a series of smaller second fractal exist
within progressively larger second fractals with potential
synchronized nonlinear periods. Using primary nodal lows:
18/34 of 36 days
24/ 52 of 48-60 days
117/341 of 334 -393 days
8/16 of 16-20 years
70/148 of 140-175 years
All the larger fractal sequences except the first 18 days base
sequence are currently in the 2x and 2.5x time frame.
The non dominant fractal starting on day 12 after the absolute low in
October 2005 is a 45/113 or x/2.5x fractal with a peak in early May on
day 90 and an exact low at day 113 or 2.5x. The nonlinear break is
easily seen on the daily charts for the NASDAQ. The third fractal of
this series is on 24/52 or on day 75 on September 28, 2006. A failing
third fractal in this sequence, i.e., 45/113/74-75 would be
appropriate.
|