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1 April 06
A Detailed and Refined Analysis
Regarding the Nature of Fractal
Growth and Decay Evolution of Equity Valuation Since October 2002
It is highly likely that the ongoing, accumulating, and overwhelming
US debt load has directly caused the nearly perfect evolution of
fractal growth patterns of its composite Wilshire equity valuations
that have evolved since October 2002. If the proportionality corollary
hypothesis is correct a devolution of the greatest historical
significance may occur in 1/10 or less of the time that occurred at
the end of the first half of the US Second Grand Fractal - from 1929
to 1932. The implications for the global community will be ...
historical.
The weekly fractal pattern since October 2002 has been previously described:
First growth fractal:
23 weeks then 22-23 weeks upward with a stronger underlying growth slope.
Total length: 45 weeks
Second growth fractal:
16/40/40 weeks There were two defining nonlinear lower breaks for
this 2nd fractal series.
The first occurred in August 2004 which defined the end of the second
sub cycle of 40 weeks,ie, 16/40 of 40. The next nonlinear lower break
came at the end of the next 40 week cycle in April of 2005. This
nonlinear break ended the entire second 16/40/40 week composite
fractal relative to the 45 week (bent) first fractal base. Notice that
the total length of the second fractal is between 2X and 2.5X of the
original base. (See the main page of EF for a description of second
growth fractal characteristics.)
The third fractal:
Identified as two back-to-back 23 week fractals ending last week for a
total of 45 weeks, twice (2X) the length of the first fractal 22-23
week major upslope period. This too is a perfect type of fit for third
growth fractals as described in the EF main page. Both of these 23
week fractals were exactly 112 days in length evolving from a rolling
daily fractal series starting in the saturated area of the second
composite fractal:
39/28/70/56/140/112/112
The quantum proportionality suggesting a deterministic optimal non
complex mathematical pattern for the complex debt money asset system
is:
(X) ( 2.5X )
(39)( 97 )
(39)/{( 28 / 70 )/ [ 56} /140/ 112]/112
{ y
/ 2.5y / 2y}
[ Z / 2.5Z/ 2Z]
2k / 2k with k equally
the first 22-23 weekly fractal.
As elegant as this solution is, there is an even more elegant fractal
solution that comes to exactly the same time-frame end conclusion. In
this construct:
The first fractal series:
is composed of a 15/36/38 day pattern coupled with a 6/15/13 smaller
fractal pattern for a total of 117 days. In this series the first 15
day base is part of the terminal decay portion of the original 23 week
series starting in October 2002.
The second fractal series:
previously identified as the 16/40/40 week series is composed of a
74/ (52/(39/28/70}/ (52/130)
Some of the days in the second 52/(39/28/70) series are shared between
sub fractals and
the actual count is 181 days, identical to the number of days in the
52/130 day sequence composing the third sub fractal.
Additionally there are six shared days between 6-13 August 2004 for a
perfect fractal second series of:
74/185/185 days.
Note 185 is exactly 2.5x of the base sub fractal 74 days. Also as
before note the characteristic nonlinear break near the end of the
first 185 day second fractal sub cycle for the first sub cycle fractal
base of 74 days. A second nonlinear drop occurs in April 2005 near the
end of the third sub cycle fractal and second 185 day pattern. This
nonlinear drop is the composite second major fractal's characteristic
termination in relation to the 'bent' first 106-7 day and 103 day sub
fractals that make up the first major fractal starting in October 2002
of 208-209 days.
The total length of the second major fractal is 74/181/6/181 (6 days
shared) or 429 days, which is between 2X and 2.5X of the first major
growth base of 208/209 days. An underlying slope line from the
beginning to the end of the second major fractal underscores all
valuation days except for the shared 6 days from 6-13 August 2004.
The third major fractal:
is composed of 2 sub cycles which have been identified in earlier postings:
first sub cycle of third major fractal: 11-12/31/30/27/22 or 117 days
second sub cycle of third major fractal: 11/30/29/27/currently 24 or 117
days
Notice that the 117 days exactly matches the length of the second sub
cycle of the first major fractal of 117 days.
The third major fractal is currently on day 333 of an ideal 334 day
pattern, using the higher growth velocity 117 day base.
If this represents the operative deterministic fractal pattern, there
may be one more additional trading day before a nonlinear break. If
the breakdown does not occur on Monday, the trading range will most
likely be very very narrow, depicting an eerie calm before the
financial firestorm and meltdown. On the other hand , the operative
decay fractal is: 11/27/24 of 27 days and the breakdown could occur on
this Monday 3 April 2006.
There is something else, something that maybe extrapolating beyond the
data. The second major decay fractal with 429 days and with a first
major fractal base of 208-209 days is only 11-13 days beyond 2x,
making it much much closer to 2x than 2.5x. If this proportionality
provides reliable information about the greater 70-72/148 x/2-2.5x US
grand fractal picture, the intrinsic proportionality would have the
decay completed within the 148th year, 2006, which seems to agree with
the operative 11/27/24 of 27 daily decay fractal.
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